Prof. WANG Shuo’s team uncovers feedback loop between wildland fires and Arctic snow cover loss

Prof. WANG Shuo, Member of Research Institute for Land and Space (RILS), Otto Poon Charitable Foundation Smart Cities Research Institute (SCRI), and Research Institute for Sustainable Urban Development (RISUD), and Associate Professor of Department of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics, and his research team have conducted a study on wildland fires in seasonally snow-covered regions.  Their findings were published in Nature Climate Change under the title “Delayed formation of Arctic snow cover in response to wildland fires in a warming climate”. This work was also highlighted in a Research Briefing.

Utilising long-term satellite data, the team discovered that between 1982 and 2018, the burned area in the Arctic increased significantly, while the duration of snow cover decreased markedly.  An XGBoost machine learning model and causal analysis confirmed the role of wildland fires in delaying the formation of snow cover, with this effect strongly associated with fire-induced reductions in albedo and increases in temperature.  Furthermore, the team observed a delay of more than five days in snow cover formation following major wildland fires.  Their projections under a high-emissions scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway, SSP 5–8.5) suggested that the burned area could increase by a factor of 2.6 and the annual mean snow cover duration could decrease by nearly 18 days between 2015 and 2100 compared with the historical average.

Prof. Wang’s research provides a more comprehensive understanding of the feedback loop between intensifying wildfires and reduced snow cover.  As climate change increases both fire activity and snow cover loss, insights into the interplay between the two factors are crucial for predicting future impacts and developing mitigation strategies.

Read the full paper: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02443-6