Prof. WANG Shuo, Member of Research Institute for Land and Space (RILS), Otto Poon Charitable Foundation Smart Cities Research Institute (SCRI), and Research Institute for Sustainable Urban Development (RISUD), and Associate Professor of Department of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics, and his research team have conducted a study on wildland fires in seasonally snow-covered regions. Their findings were published in Nature Climate Change under the title “Delayed formation of Arctic snow cover in response to wildland fires in a warming climate”. This work was also highlighted in a Research Briefing.
Utilising long-term satellite data, the team discovered that between 1982 and 2018, the burned area in the Arctic increased significantly, while the duration of snow cover decreased markedly. An XGBoost machine learning model and causal analysis confirmed the role of wildland fires in delaying the formation of snow cover, with this effect strongly associated with fire-induced reductions in albedo and increases in temperature. Furthermore, the team observed a delay of more than five days in snow cover formation following major wildland fires. Their projections under a high-emissions scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway, SSP 5–8.5) suggested that the burned area could increase by a factor of 2.6 and the annual mean snow cover duration could decrease by nearly 18 days between 2015 and 2100 compared with the historical average.
Prof. Wang’s research provides a more comprehensive understanding of the feedback loop between intensifying wildfires and reduced snow cover. As climate change increases both fire activity and snow cover loss, insights into the interplay between the two factors are crucial for predicting future impacts and developing mitigation strategies.
Read the full paper: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02443-6
Read the research briefing: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02444-5
土地及空間研究院、潘樂陶慈善基金智慧城市研究院及可持續城市發展研究院成員兼土地測量及地理資訊學系副教授王碩及其研究團隊，針對季節性積雪地區的野火進行了研究。研究成果以「Delayed formation of Arctic snow cover in response to wildland fires in a warming climate」（氣候暖化下野火對北極積雪形成延遲的影響）為題，已發表於《Nature Climate Change》期刊，期刊編輯還以研究簡報形式對該成果進行了解讀與科普。
研究團隊分析歷史衛星數據，發現在1982年至2018年間，北極地區的燒毀面積顯著增加，而積雪覆蓋的持續時間則明顯縮短。團隊通過XGBoost機器學習模型及因果分析，證實了野火導致積雪形成延遲，這一影響與野火所致的地表反照率降低及氣溫上升密切相關。此外，團隊觀察到在發生大型野火後，積雪覆蓋的形成時間平均延遲五天以上。團隊的推算模型預測，在極高溫室氣體排放情景（SSP5至8.5）下，2015年至2100年間的燒毀面積可能增加2.6倍，年度平均積雪覆蓋持續時間則可能比歷史平均紀錄短近18天。
