The 15th Asian Tourism Forum (#ATF2026) was held in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, from June 11 to 13, 2026. Under the theme "The Asian Paradigm in Hospitality and Tourism," this year's forum brought together scholars, industry representatives, and policymakers from 22 countries to collectively explore the future direction of Asia's tourism and hospitality industry.
During the forum, Prof. Haiyan Song, Director of RCDTT, Associate Dean (Research) and Chair Professor of the School of Hotel and Tourism Management, and Mr and Mrs Chan Chak Fu Professor in International Tourism, delivered a keynote presentation titled "Forecasts of Mongolia Tourism Demand," sharing key projections for Mongolia’s tourism. Based on the Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts project—which covers 39 destinations and over 1,400 source-to-destination pairs—the forecast highlights a transparent, interpretable, two-stage forecasting methodology. By integrating policy and market information, this approach effectively transforms volatile data into actionable insights to support decision-making.
According to the forecasts, Mongolia’s international visitor arrivals are expected to undergo a full recovery and sustain growth above the baseline. By the end of 2026, inbound tourist arrivals to Mongolia are projected to reach 161.83% of 2019 levels; by 2028, this figure is expected to rise further to 177.84%. However, the annual growth rate is also projected to moderate from 8.4% in 2026 to 4.1% in 2028, indicating that the market is gradually stabilizing and maturing after a strong initial rebound.
In terms of source markets, Russia, China, and South Korea will continue to dominate Mongolia's inbound tourism, with their combined share projected to reach 79.47% by 2028. Specifically, Russia is poised to become the largest single source market by 2028. Meanwhile, as China's post-pandemic catch-up growth stabilizes, its market share is expected to gradually adjust to 28.71%. Other key source markets, including South Korea, Japan, and the United States, are also demonstrating varying paces of recovery and growth.
Accurate tourism forecasting is far more than just numerical estimation; it serves as a critical foundation for industry recovery, strategic market positioning, and policy decision-making. RCdTT will continue to focus on how digitalization and data-driven approaches can empower the Asian tourism industry to transition toward a more sustainable future.
| Topics | Research |
|---|---|
| Research Units | Research Centre for Digital Transformation of Tourism |
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