COVID-19 Pandemic and Air Transportation: Implications for post-recovery period and Chinese aviation industry

The aviation industry had been continuously growing in the last century, surviving from several major shocks, which highlights the resilience of the aviation system. It seems, however, that the aviation industry has not learned its lessons from these earlier experiences, culminating into the devastating impact on the industry by the COVID-19, with unprecedented global declines in passenger volume and airline revenue. Pending the available vaccines, governments implemented non-pharmaceutical measures to control local epidemic in early stages. It was shown that air transportation played an important role in spreading the COVID-19; as a consequence, flight bans were executed by countries and regions against the first waves of the pandemic. For instance, the greatest disconnection of the worldwide air transport since the World War II occurred in April 2020, when passenger traffic was reduced by 94% compared to 2019, and total operating revenues for the industry were down by 62% in 2020. These last three years with the pandemic have highlighted the vulnerability of our aviation system and the society as a whole. Accordingly, it is instrumental to better understand the mechanisms and ramifications of COVID-19 for preparing towards future external disruptions. In this seminar, I will discuss the interactions between the pandemic and aviation at the world level. Our data-driven analysis is divided into three stages based on the major periods of COVID-19, namely, March 2020-June 2020, July 2020-June 2021, and the endemic recovery from July 2021 to June 2022. The policy and managerial implications for post-recovery period and Chinese aviation industry will be examined, and the recommendations for future research work will be provided.