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May 2013 - Volume 14, Issue 2
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PATA and SHTM Jointly Released Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2013-2017
The Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA) and the SHTM released a joint publication, "Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2013-2017", on 25 April. This is the first time that this PATA publication has been produced in collaboration with the School.
The annual and quarterly forecasts cover a five-year horizon and are intended to help destinations develop strategies for the coming years by predicting arrivals, tourism receipts and departures according to the country/region of origin for 41 destinations. These projections provide essential information for tourism planners and organisations to anticipate demand trends and manage supply.
The forecasting system incorporates advanced econometric techniques and expert
opinions in forecasting the demand for travel from various source markets to destinations within the Asia-Pacific region.
Some of the highlights of the forecasts are:
- Visitor arrivals to the Asia-Pacific region will continue to grow with an average annual growth rate of 4.1% over the 2013-2017 period and will reach 581 million by 2017
- Northeast Asia will maintain a dominant position in the inbound market of the Asia-Pacific region, and its
market share will reach 53.52% by 2017
- China will continue to be the top inbound destination in the Asia-Pacific region, peaking at 147.4 million visitors in 2017
- Hong Kong will surpass the US to become the second largest inbound destination in the Asia-Pacific region in 2015
- Visitor arrivals to the Asia-Pacific region from China will exceed 100 million by 2015
- Cambodia, the Maldives, Chinese Taipei, Bhutan and Mongolia will be the top five
fastest-growing destinations in terms of visitor arrivals over the 2013-2017 period.
The SHTM is pleased to be part of the new PATA NextGen forecasting initiative, as transferring our knowledge to practice is high on the School's research agenda.
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