"Along with natural disasters, infectious diseases are among the top unintentional causes of human death and suffering the world over. Some diseases have left their mark on the human race, warping the course of human history in their wake." 10 Infectious Diseases That Changed History

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  HIV epidemics in Hong Kong and other Chinese populations

Selected Bibliography full list
  1. He D, Lin L, Artzy-Randrup Y, Demirhan H, Cowling BJ, Stone L#. (2023) Resolving the enigma of Iquitos and Manaus: A modelling analysis of multiple COVID-19 epidemic waves in two Amazonian cities. PNAS. 120(10):e2211422120.
  2. He D#, Ali ST, Fan G, Gao D, Song H, Lou Y, Zhao S, Cowling BJ, Stone L#. (2022) Evaluation of Effectiveness of Global COVID-19 Vaccination Campaign. Emerging Infectious Disease. (IF: 16.126) 28(9):1873-1876.
  3. Zhao S., Chong MK, Ryu S, Guo Z, He M, Chen B, Musa SS, Wang J, Wu Y, He D#, & Wang MH (2022). Characterizing superspreading potential of infectious disease: Decomposition of individual transmissibility. PLOS Computational Biology,18(6), e1010281.
  4. Feng A, Obolski U, Stone, L., & He D#. (2022). Modelling COVID-19 Vaccine Breakthrough Infections in Highly Vaccinated Israel-the effects of waning immunity and third vaccination dose. PLOS Global Public Health, 2(11): e0001211.
  5. Zhao S, Shen M, Musa SS, Guo Z, Ran J, Peng Z, Zhao Y, Chong MKC, He D, Wang MH (2021). Inference of the superspreading potential using zero-truncated negative binomial likelihood framework: Exemplification with COVID-19 contact tracing surveillance data. BMC Medical Research Methodology 21:30.
  6. Ge J, He D, Lin Z, Zhu H, Zhuang Z (2020). Four-tier response system and spatial propagation of COVID-19 in China by a network model. Mathematical Biosciences. 330:108484.
  7. Li C, Zhang X, Zhu Y, Lin Q, Zhao S, Yang L, Li X, He D, Stone L (2021). Excess pneumonia and influenza death as herald wave of COVID-19 in England and Wales, United Kingdom. Journal of Infection. 82(2)P282-327.
  8. Fan G, Yang Z, Lin Q, Zhao S, Yang L, He D (2020). Decreased Case Fatality Rate of COVID-19 in the Second Wave: a study in 53 countries/regions. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases. 13819
  9. Ran J, Song Y, Zhuang Z, Han L, Zhao S, Cao P, Geng Y, Xu L, Qin J, He D, Wu F, Yang L (2020). Blood Pressure Control and Adverse Outcomes of COVID-19 Infection in Patients with Coexisting Hypertension in Wuhan, China. Hypertension Research. 43(11):1267-1276.
  10. Stone L, He D, Lehnstaedt S, Artzy-Randrup Y (2020). Extraordinary curtailment of massive typhus epidemic in the Warsaw Ghetto. Science Advances (IF 13.116). 6(30):eabc0927.
  11. He D, Zhao S, Lin Q, MUSA SS, & Stone L (2020). New estimates of the Zika virus epidemic attack rate in Northeastern Brazil from 2015 to 2016: A modelling analysis based on Guillain-Barre Syndrome (GBS) surveillance data. PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases (IF 3.885) 14(4): e0007502.
  12. He D, Zhao S, Lin Q, Zhuang Z, Cao P, Wang MH, Yang L (2020). The relative transmissibility of asymptomatic COVID-19 cases among close contacts. International Journal of Infectious Diseases. 94:145-147.
  13. Zhao S, Cao P, Chong MKC, Gao D, Lou Y, Ran J, Wang K, Wang W, Yang L, He D, Wang MH. (2020) COVID-19 and gender-specific difference: Analysis of public surveillance data in Hong Kong and Shenzhen, China, from January 10 to February 15, 2020. Infection Control & Hospital Epidemiology. 41(6):750-751.
  14. Zhao S, Cao P, Gao D, Zhuang Z, Cai Y, Ran J, Chong MKC, Wang K, Lou Y, Wang W, Yang L, He D, Wang MH (2020) Serial interval in the estimation of reproduction number of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) during the early outbreak. Journal of Travel Medicine (IF 7.089). 27(3):1-3.
  15. Zhao S, Stone L, Gao D, Musa SS, Chong MKC, He D, Wang MH (2020) Imitation dynamics in the mitigation of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Wuhan, China from 2019 to 2020. Annals of Translational Medicine. 8(7):448.
  16. Lin Q, Zhao S, Gao D, Lou Y, Yang S, Musa SS, Wang MH, Cai Y, Wang W, Yang L, He D. (2020) A conceptual model for the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China with individual reaction and governmental action. International Journal of Infectious Diseases. 93:211-216.
  17. Zhao S, Lin Q, Ran J, Musa SS, Yang G, Wang W, Lou Y, Gao D, Yang L, He D, Wang MH. (2020) Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak. International Journal of Infectious Diseases. 01-050. A reply.
  18. He D, Chiu APY, Wu JTK, Cowling BJ. (2020) Pre-pandemic live-attenuated influenza vaccine. Hong Kong Med J (IF 1.679). 25 (6 Supplement 9)
  19. Zhao S, Musa SS, Fu H, He D, Qin J. (2019) Simple Framework for Real-time Forecast in a data-limited situation: the Zika virus (ZIKV) Outbreaks in Brazil from 2015 to 2016 as an example. Parasites & Vectors (IF 2.824). 12:344
  20. Zhao S, Bauch C, He D (2018) Strategic Decision-Making about Travel during Disease Outbreaks: a Game Theoretical Approach. Journal of the Royal Society Interface (IF 3.748). 15(146):20180515.Media Coverage: The Conversation Yahoo News Phys.org preprint
  21. Sheikh A, Wu P, Cauchemez S, He D, Fang V, Cowling B, Tian L (2018) Ambient ozone and influenza transmissibility in Hong Kong. European Respiratory Journal. 00369.
  22. Zhao S, Stone L, Gao D, He D (2018) Modelling the Large-scale Yellow Fever Outbreak in Luanda, Angola, and the Impact of Vaccination. PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases. 12(1): e0006158. Awards for Outstanding Research Articles in Biosurveillance Media Coverage: medicalresearch.com
  23. Lin Q, Chiu A, Zhao S, He D (2018) Modelling the spread of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus in Saudi Arabia. Statistical Methods in Medical Research. 27(7):1968-1978. early version.
  24. Chiu A, Dushoff J, Yu D, He D (2017) Patterns of Influenza Vaccination Coverage in the United States from 2009 to 2015. International Journal of Infectious Diseases. 66: 122-127. Media Coverage: Mdedge screenshot.
  25. Chiu A, Lin Q, He D (2017) Religious festivals and influenza. arXiv:1710.09689. Media Coverage: MIT Technology Review, pdf.
  26. Yu D, Lin Q, Chiu A, He D (2017) Effects of Reactive Social Distancing on the 1918 Influenza Pandemic. PLOS One 0180545. Media Coverage: Biodefense Headlines
  27. He D, Earn D (2016) The cohort effect in childhood disease dynamics. Journal of The Royal Society Interface 13, 20160156. Media Coverage: Scimex
  28. Gao D, Lou Y, He D, Porco T, Kuang Y, Chowell G, Ruan S (2016) Prevention and control of Zika as a mosquito-borne and sexually transmitted disease: A mathematical modeling analysis. Scientific Reports 6, 28070 doi:10.1038/srep28070 Media Coverage: Guokr UMiami Veritas Science Daily, National Public Radio, Health Medicine Network, Canadian Television Network (CTV), Healio, O Globo (in Spanish), Elcomercio (in Portuguese), SHNU News (in Chinese) ; European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (Rapid Risk Assessment)
  29. He D, Chiu A, Lin Q, Cowling B (2015) Differences in the seasonality of MERS-CoV and influenza in the Middle East. Inter J of Infect Dis. 40:15-16 Media Coverage: medicalresearch.com Department of Defense AFHS report
  30. He D, Dushoff J, Eftimie R, Earn D (2013) Patterns of Spread of Influenza A across Canada. Proc Roy Soc B, 280(1770), 20131174.. Media Coverage: McDaily News,  CBC Hamilton,  Toronto Sun,  Best Health Magazine,  MSN.com
  31. He D, Dushoff J, Day T, Ma J, Earn D (2013) Inferring the causes of the three waves of the 1918 influenza pandemic in England and Wales. Proc Roy Soc B 280(1766), 20131345. Media Coverage: McDaily News,   Science Newsline,    Medical Xpress,   Medical News Today,   Yahoo News India, F1000 recommended, PolyU Milestones, PolyU Media Release.
  32. Earn D, He D, Loeb M, Fonseca K, Lee B, Dushoff J (2012) Effects of school closure on incidence of pandemic influenza in Alberta, Canada. Annals of Internal Medicine 156: 173-181. Media Coverage: CNN, New York Times, NPR, CBC, McMaster Daily News, Listed by CDC
  33. He D, Dushoff J, Day T, Ma J, Earn D (2011) Mechanistic modelling of the three waves of the 1918 influenza pandemic. Theoretical Ecology 4: 283-288
  34. He D, Ionides E, King A (2010) Plug-and-play inference for disease dynamics: measles in large and small populations as a case study. Journal of The Royal Society Interface 7: 271-283. (This paper was among the top ten most cited in the journal in 2010)
  35. Breto C, He D, Ionides E, King A (2009) Time series analysis via mechanistic models. Annals of Applied Statistics 3: 319-348.