21 Apr 2021 (Wed)

3:30 – 4:30 pm (HK Time)

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Guest Speaker: Dr Duan Hongbo

Associate Professor
School of Economics and Management
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

Dr DUAN Hongbo, Associate Professor of Economics and Management at University of Chinese Academy of Sciences. He has long been working on resource and environmental economics, energy-economy-environmental (3E) integrated modelling and climate policy analysis. Dr Duan is the leading developer of the famous 3E-integrated model, E3METL and CE3METL; he has been authors of many peer-reviewed papers, including those published on Ecological Economics, Energy Journal, and Nature (Cor). He also serves as associate editors, guest editors and editorial board members for around ten journals, such as Climate Change Economics, Applied Energy, Regional Environmental Change. Dr Duan is the winners of the Best Review Article Award of Environmental Research Letters (2019) and Springer Nature “Change the World, One Article at a Time” Outstanding Research Award (2018).

Multi-model comparison on China’s challenges facing 1.5℃ warming limit

Abstract:

Given the increasing interest in keeping global warming below 1.5 ℃, a key question is what this would mean for China’s emission pathway, energy restructuring and decarbonization. By conducting a multi-model study, we find that the 1.5 ℃-consistent goal would require China to reduce its carbon emissions and energy consumption by over 90% and 39%, respectively, compared to the No Policy case. Negative emission technologies play an important role in achieving near-zero emissions, with captured carbon accounting on average for 20% of the total reductions in 2050. Our multi-model comparisons reveal large differences in necessary emission reductions across sectors, while what’s consistent is that the power sector is required to achieve full decarbonization by 2050. The cross-model averages indicate that China’s accumulated policy costs may amount to 2.8-5.7% of its GDP by 2050, given the 1.5 ℃ warming limit.